Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Kotchman traded to the M's

ESPN's Buster Olney broke the news yesterday on Twitter that the Mariners and Red Sox were very close to completing a deal that would send first baseman Casey Kotchman to Seattle. Over the past 24 hours more details have emerged and according to plenty of sources the Mariners will send Bill Hall, a minor leaguer and cash to Boston for compensation.

So...what does that mean? Well, the Mariners certainly upgrade their starting first baseman for 2010 as Kotchman is a better option than Mike Carp. But they do so at the expense of a great utility player that has experience playing several different positions and has played them well.

Here's the story on Kotchman:

Casey Kotchman, a former 1st round draft pick of the Los Angeles Angels entered the league in 2004 but didn't start seeing significant playing time until 2007. In his first full season, Kotchman posted a .296 batting average, a .372 on-base percentage, and a .467 slugging percentage. These are decent numbers for a gap-power left handed hitter. The only problem is each year following 2007 Kotchman regressed. His 2009 numbers were .269/.339/.382, hardly the production we received last year from Russell Branyan.

However, Kotchman does fit the mold of the guys Jack Zduriencik has brought over to the Mariners. He's an above-average defender posting a career UZR of 4.4 per 150 innings, he's a patient left-handed hitter who makes contact with the ball, and he's a young player who hasn't quite reached his potential. Of course, with this type of trade the question is how much will it cost. Kotchman is eligible for arbitration in 2010 and some reports expect his salary to be in the $5 million range. Bill Hall's salary for 2010 would equal $8.4 million and that's why the Mariners are expected to chip in some cash for the trade. Keep in mind though, when we traded with the Brewers for Hall back in August, Milwaukee sent a lot of cash over as well which will seemingly be used in this trade for Kotchman.

What do we lose giving up a player like Bill Hall?

The obvious thing is we lose the flexibility of a utility fielder that can play multiple positions in the outfield and at second and third base. Hall is an above-average defender in the infield and an average fielder in the outfield. However, it seems the Mariners were still waiting for Hall to repeat on his monster 2006 season when he hit 35 home runs and scored over 100 times. Turning around and trading Hall as quickly as they did means there had to be cause for concern with the front office that he wouldn't return to his power-hitting form.

Overall, the Mariners essentially traded two minor league players for Casey Kotchman. The player that will be sent to the Red Sox and Ruben Flores, the minor leaguer sent to Milwaukee. For all of these reasons I think this is a good trade. What I don't like about it is the Mariners have downgraded their offense compared to other options that are on the market such as Russell Branyan and Adam LaRoche. If Kotchman can show some sign that he's anywhere near the type of offensive player he was projected to be this could be a great move. As it stands right now, I'd call it as just being ok.

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