Randy Winn signs with the Yankees

News today from ESPN reported the New York Yankees and Randy Winn have agreed on a contract. Of course, what this means is the Yankees will not be re-signing Johnny Damon. The report mentioned that Damon's agent, Scott Boras will turn his attention to the Detroit Tigers and Cincinnati Reds for the outfielder's services. But, recent opinion from M's fans is that the Seattle front office should go after the speedy outfielder.

I'm not the biggest Johnny Damon fan but for as long as I can remember he has always been rumored to want to come play for the Mariners. Obviously, Johnny Damon wouldn't be a horrible signing but it gives us another left-handed bat when the team should really be looking for a righty. The thing that would make this deal most intriguing is if Jack Zduriencik were to get Damon to lower his asking price significantly which could happen as the market seems to be drying up.

Dave Cameron at USS Mariner does a much better job of explaining what the risk/reward of a Johnny Damon signing would be and although I agree that you should never discount a player because the match is not ideal I do feel there's something to be said about having a balance on the roster for situational purposes.

Kotchman traded to the M's

ESPN's Buster Olney broke the news yesterday on Twitter that the Mariners and Red Sox were very close to completing a deal that would send first baseman Casey Kotchman to Seattle. Over the past 24 hours more details have emerged and according to plenty of sources the Mariners will send Bill Hall, a minor leaguer and cash to Boston for compensation.

So...what does that mean? Well, the Mariners certainly upgrade their starting first baseman for 2010 as Kotchman is a better option than Mike Carp. But they do so at the expense of a great utility player that has experience playing several different positions and has played them well.

Here's the story on Kotchman:

Casey Kotchman, a former 1st round draft pick of the Los Angeles Angels entered the league in 2004 but didn't start seeing significant playing time until 2007. In his first full season, Kotchman posted a .296 batting average, a .372 on-base percentage, and a .467 slugging percentage. These are decent numbers for a gap-power left handed hitter. The only problem is each year following 2007 Kotchman regressed. His 2009 numbers were .269/.339/.382, hardly the production we received last year from Russell Branyan.

However, Kotchman does fit the mold of the guys Jack Zduriencik has brought over to the Mariners. He's an above-average defender posting a career UZR of 4.4 per 150 innings, he's a patient left-handed hitter who makes contact with the ball, and he's a young player who hasn't quite reached his potential. Of course, with this type of trade the question is how much will it cost. Kotchman is eligible for arbitration in 2010 and some reports expect his salary to be in the $5 million range. Bill Hall's salary for 2010 would equal $8.4 million and that's why the Mariners are expected to chip in some cash for the trade. Keep in mind though, when we traded with the Brewers for Hall back in August, Milwaukee sent a lot of cash over as well which will seemingly be used in this trade for Kotchman.

What do we lose giving up a player like Bill Hall?

The obvious thing is we lose the flexibility of a utility fielder that can play multiple positions in the outfield and at second and third base. Hall is an above-average defender in the infield and an average fielder in the outfield. However, it seems the Mariners were still waiting for Hall to repeat on his monster 2006 season when he hit 35 home runs and scored over 100 times. Turning around and trading Hall as quickly as they did means there had to be cause for concern with the front office that he wouldn't return to his power-hitting form.

Overall, the Mariners essentially traded two minor league players for Casey Kotchman. The player that will be sent to the Red Sox and Ruben Flores, the minor leaguer sent to Milwaukee. For all of these reasons I think this is a good trade. What I don't like about it is the Mariners have downgraded their offense compared to other options that are on the market such as Russell Branyan and Adam LaRoche. If Kotchman can show some sign that he's anywhere near the type of offensive player he was projected to be this could be a great move. As it stands right now, I'd call it as just being ok.

Apparently the M's almost traded The King

Per Baker, the M's were close to a deal that would have sent Felix Hernandez to Boston in a three team trade involving the Red Sox, San Diego Padres and Seattle. Of course this hasn't been confirmed and never will, but according to one of Baker's "sources" the deal would have netted the M's first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, pitcher Clay Buchholz and a couple other prospects (probably similar to the ones gained in the Washburn deal).

I'm not quite sure what I would have felt if the M's made this trade, if it was in fact under consideration. Let's take a look at what the entire trade would have looked like.

Boston gets:
Felix Hernandez (From Seattle)

Seattle gets:
Adrian Gonzalez (From San Diego)
Clay Buchholz (From Boston)
Minor League Players

San Diego gets:
Brandon Morrow (From Seattle)
Philippe Aumont (From Seattle)
Carlos Triunfel (From Seattle)
Prospects (From Boston)

Now, according to the story, the reasoning for declining the trade was Jack Z felt he could have leveraged a similar package for Felix next year and because of that, felt there was little need to pull the trigger. Here's what I think, the players in the deal didn't absolutely wow Z like they would need to in order to deal Felix. Don't get me wrong, Adrian Gonzalez might be the most dominant young left-hitting first baseman in the majors. But he's the only player who has proven himself in the majors. Buchholz, while good, does not have the experience to guarantee he won't bust.

Not to mention...look at what the Mariners would have been giving up to get Gonzalez and Buccholz. Two 1st round draft picks and the top prospect in the M's organization in Carlos Triunfel. Would this have helped the organization in the longer term? I don't think so, we would have given up three of our most prized pitching prospects. That would have killed our pitching staff for 2011. Now, who's to say whether this same deal won't get made next year, cause it could very much happen. But at this moment, I'm glad Jack held off on this one.

Today's the Day

So here we are...it's the trading deadline and the Mariners see themselves 8 games back of the division lead with both the Rangers and Angels ahead of them. What does that mean? SELL, SELL, SELL! I don't want to be the pessimistic fan here, but no team (except the '95 M's) has come back to win the division while more than 6 games out at the trading deadline.

We have a very good bargaining chip with Jarrod Washburn and we actually have a chance to get a decent prospect in return for shipping him off to a contender. Now, can you say that was the case at this time last year? Hell no, we would have been happy with somebody just picking up his contract.

So, it's time to think realistically. The Mariners, while still could play some entertaining ball down the stretch have all but blown their chance of an AL West title. The Cleveland series hurt, bad, and this Texas series doesn't look so good after Olson's gem last night and Vargas getting the nod today.

So...everyone needs to set aside their new-found love for Jarrod Washburn because they think all of a sudden, "Hey, he's figured it out. He's on the top of his game...one of the best in baseball. Not to mention a great clubhouse leader." Because I'm not sold on his success. Instead I say capitalize on it and pull the deal for a decent to good prospect. No need to go out there and demand the world, cause let's be honest...although he's one of the hottest pitchers in baseball right now...it's still Washburn.

I have full confidence Jack will do what he needs to do. It feels right.

At the break...

Here we are at the All-Star Break. We're a little past the half-way point of the season and to say that the Mariners are playing better than expected would be an understatement. At the beginning of the year I think I pegged them to be out of contention in mid-June.

We're in mid-July and the M's see themselves only 4.5 games behind division leader Los Angeles. I fully expected Erik Bedard to be playing for an east coast team that has visions of making the playoffs. I did not expect to see Russell Branyan close to being the league leader in home runs. And I sure as hell didn't see the M's sporting a record of 46-42.

So what's going on here? The truth is, this team is playing just as that...a team. When Beltre and Lopez struggled, Ichiro and Branyan stepped up. When Ichiro and Branyan cooled down, Lopez and Gutierrez got hot. This team is fun to watch because any given night a new hero steps forward. I went to the Texas Rangers game on Saturday night, and of all the people in the lineup...Rob Johnson hits a three-run homer to put the M's up for good. That kind of production from the bottom of the lineup is necessary for a team looking to contend for the playoffs.

On a side note...in that game Branyan hit probably one of the farthest home runs I think I've ever seen while at Safeco. His shot off the Las Vegas sign below the Hit It Here Cafe was nothing short of phenomenal.

But I digress...this team feeds off each other. They have each other's backs, they're accountable for their own mistakes and they're buying into the system. These are all things that weren't present with last year's ball club. The transformation this team has gone through in just 10 short months speaks volumes of the job that General Manager Jack Zduriencik and Field Manager Don Wakamatsu have done.

I'm not willing to jump whole-heartedly on the idea that this Mariners team is a playoff contender...yet. There are still some moves to be made before the end of July that will determine that. But half way through the season, I am more than impressed with this ball club and uncharacteristically hopeful for the second half and years to come.

It's been a great ride so far and can only get better from here.

The worst trade in Mariner history

News broke today that Erik Bedard has been placed on the 15-day disabled list. The move is retroactive to June 8th but I think you can squash the possibility of trading Bedard by the deadline. You'd be hard pressed to find a general manager in Major League Baseball willing to give up a prospect or two in exchange for a left-handed pitcher with a history of injuries. Regardless whether his ERA and BAA is in the American League's Top-5.

So, let's recap this amazing trade engineered by the mastermind genius Bill Bavasi. (I know it's hard to establish sarcasm in written form but let me point out I was laying it on pretty thick in the last sentence.)

The Mariners receive a left-handed strike-out, ground ball pitcher who goes on to post an 11-6 record working 146.2 innings in a little under a year and a half with a 3.07 ERA. In those 146.2 innings he has struck out 137 batters and walked only 59. Not bad stats but obviously the glaring issue is the 146.2 innings pitched, roughly half of what he should be at.

Let's take a look at what the guys the M's have given up have done. The centerpiece of the deal, Center Fielder Adam Jones has gone on to post a .296/.341/479 with the Orioles. It's nothing earth shattering but if you also remember that 2008 was his first full-year in the majors and that the kid is only 24 years old, it hurts more than a little bit.

The other major league piece of the trade, George Sherrill has only saved 43 games for the Orioles in just under a year and a half. Hmm, I'm sure the M's would have loved that kind of production out of their closer last year and early this season.

Not to mention Tony Butler Chris Tillman instantly became one of the Orioles' best pitching prospects and looks to get called up later this year.

But what's done is done, right? Let's look to the future. As I was telling Garbs, if we didn't have Franklin Gutierrez in Center Field, arguably a better defender than Adam Jones by about 3 runs this would be a harder pill to swallow. The only reason I'm holding my head high is because I emphatically believe Jack Zduriencik is the man who can right the ship after this debacle of a trade and we have already seen how he can turn situations into positives for the M's.