Putting the game in motion

This weekend a reader of the blog explained to me that he felt Don Wakamatsu has changed the way he has managed the team. During the Mariners' very successful April we heard the term Wak ball invented as the M's focused on manufacturing runs by bunting runners over, using the hit-and-run and stealing bases.

The reader told me he felt during May the M's have abandoned their strategy of putting the game in motion. I had to think about it for a while, but it sounded like a good explanation to the struggles with the M's offense. 

Now there are some obvious explanations for why the M's would be sacrificing and stealing less. The first is the recent strategy to bat Russell Branyan second in the order. Obviously with the power Branyan adds to the line-up you don't want to take his power away with a sacrifice bunt. The M's have also seen a power increase the last couple weeks as Ichiro continues to drive the ball into the gaps and signs are showing of Jose Lopez turning the corner, offensively.

But I wanted to take a look at the statistics anyway just to see if Wakamatsu has in fact slowed the game down or if by chance we're just getting accustomed to Wak's style.

In the month of April, The M's stole 16-of-23 bases with Endy Chavez swiping a team high 5 bags. Of course the M's played the first half of April without one of their best runners, Ichiro, so that definitely has a bearing on the way they played the game. Additionally, the M's recorded 11 sacrifices bunts through April.

In comparison, during the month of May, the team converted 17-of-24 stolen bases, 5 from Ichiro and 18 sacrifice bunts, 7 coming from Yuniesky Betancourt.

Hmm...so looking at the numbers, the Mariners are actually attempting more stolen bases and sacrificing more often. So why is there a big difference in the way the team has played from April to May? The problem occurs when we get those runners on 2nd and 3rd base we can't come up with the big hit to score those runs. 

Offense is a streaky part of the game, when runs are easy to come by, the little things like moving runners over and stealing bases can get overlooked. But when the offense isn't producing it becomes a very important part of the game. Moving runners over and stealing bases can help manufacture extra runs that normally you normally wouldn't. 

Power was always a concern for the 2009 Mariners. Given the lack of power we've had this year it's encouraging to see Wak continue moving the runners and sacrificing outs for position.

Seattle vs. Tampa Bay

If any of you actually listened to the podcast you would know that I cautioned everyone against getting excited about the Mariners' amazing start. I warned everyone that we still have yet to play any of the A.L. East teams.

Well that all changes tonight and I'm now telling you this series is very winnable. The series will feature two of the best defenses in baseball as both lead the league in UZR. So what will this one come down to? Tampa Bay's pitching. Last year Tampa had one of the more impressive starting rotations but as of now they have failed to show a glimpse of 2008. If the starting rotation can keep the Mariners hitters in their current funk I see them winning the series.

But! There is a but, I would take a struggling hitter over struggling pitching. Hitters can be streaky at times and without warning things click and begin to make sense. Seattle has gotten off to this amazing start without much offense. That being said I look for Tampa's pitching to make a comeback but ultimately not the comeback needed to take two-of-three games against the M's.

My guess? Seattle wins Game 1 with Washburn on the mound. Tampa wins Game 2 and Felix dominates the Rays in a pitching duel with James Shields for the Game 3 W and the series win!